Fire Environment Danger Assessment
Please contact Fire Environment Branch Head Cabe Speary for more information.
All reports are in Adobe Acrobat PDF format.
Region 1 Summary
SUMMARY April 24, 2019
Fire Danger will remain slightly elevated through Thursday, before dropping to low on Friday due to higher RH and anticipated precipitation. Rainfall is expected to be light, so fire danger should climb quickly over the weekend with lower RH.
- Minimum RH will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s today and tomorrow, climbing to 60-70% for Friday, then returning to the mid-30s-mid-40s for the remainder of the period, except along the immediate coastal counties where mid-50s can be expected later in the period.
- Winds will generally be S/SW at 5-12 MPH, gusting to 21, today and tomorrow. They will switch to the N/NW on Friday night, at 5-10 in the northern part of the region and 10-15 in the south. For the remainder of the period, expect 5-15 MPH mostly from the southern quadrants.
- High temperatures will be in the 80s to near 90 degrees today and tomorrow, dropping back to 70-80 for the remainder of the period.
- ERCs are predicted to increase today and tomorrow before dropping back slightly Friday, then increasing rapidly for the remainder of the period.. 100 HR FMs will be dropping considerably, getting near or at their all-time low by the end of the period.
- 1000 HR FMs have remained at or above the 20% mark for the entire region.
- Longer range, May-July: Above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.
SUMMARY April 24, 2019
Fire Danger will stay slightly elevated today. Higher RH and rain on Friday will reduce fire danger to low. On Saturday, it will increase substantially with stronger winds and lower RH, especially in areas that receive little rain, before moderating during the remainder of the period.
- Minimum RH will generally be the mid-30s today, increasing to the mid-50s for tomorrow before dropping back to the low 30s-40% for Saturday and Sunday. For the remainder of the period, expect 40-50%.
- Winds will be generally S/SW at 5-10 MPH for today increasing to 10-15 with gusts to 25 for tomorrow from the W. For the remainder of the period, expect W/SW winds at 5-15.
- High temperatures today will be in the 80s, dropping back to the low 70s tomorrow. A warming trend will bring temps back to the 70s to low 80s for the remainder of the period.
- ERCs and 100 HR FMs moved to near average toward the end of this past week. After a little up and down early in the coming week, ERCs should be somewhat above normal by the end of the period. 100 HR FMs will be below normal and approaching all-time lows in the Blue Ridge and South Coast FDRAs.
- The 1000 HR FMs remained steady this week, mostly at or above 20%.
- Long Range Forecast, May-July: Warmer than normal, wetter than normal.
SUMMARY April 24, 2019
Fire Danger will be slightly elevated today with low RH and moderate wind. Rain moving in this evening through Friday should lower fire danger somewhat depending upon amounts received. Saturday will see an increase with strong winds and lower RH, especially in lighter fuels. Expect moderate fire danger for the remainder of the period with lessening winds and higher RH.
- Minimum RH will be in the mid-30s for today, climbing to the 50s for tomorrow and dropping to back to the mid-30s for Saturday. For the remainder of the period, expect 45-55%.
- Winds will generally be S/SW under 10 MPH for today. Expect 10-15 MPH with gusts to 35 on the ridge tops for Friday. On Saturday, gusty W winds of 15-25 MPH for the mountains, with 10-15 for the piedmont. For the remainder of the period, expect 5-15 primarily out of the southern quadrants.
- High temperatures will be in the 70s-80 for today, dropping back to the low 60s-low low 70s for Friday and Saturday, before returning to the 70s-low 80s for the remainder of the period.
- ERCs will be holding steady or slightly increasing through Thursday. They will drop with the rain Friday and Saturday, then increase again to above normal on Saturday through the remainder of the period. 100 HR FMs will be dropping considerably to near or below the minimum for the day near the end of the period, except Blue Ridge which will be below normal but not near the minimum for the day.
- 1000 HR FMs have remained steady this week. All are at or above the 20% threshold.
- Long Term Forecast, May-July: Warmer than normal, wetter than normal.