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NCFS

Fire Environment Danger Assessment

Please contact Fire Environment Branch Head Cabe Speary for more information.

All reports are in Adobe Acrobat PDF format.

Region 1 Summary

R1 Full Report

SUMMARY March 21, 2019

    Fire Danger will increase through Monday with low RH and strong winds. The next rain maker should decrease the fire danger Tuesday and Wednesday.
  • Minimum RH will mid-20s to mid-30s Friday through Sunday, climbing to the 40-50% range for the remainder of the period.
  • Winds will generally be W/NW tonight and tomorrow from 7-15 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH and possibly higher near the coast Friday and Friday night. They will be 5-15 for Sunday-Monday, then 10-20 MPH for the remainder of the period.
  • High temperatures will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s through Sunday, with 70s for Monday, then low 50s-low 60s for the remainder of the period.
  • ERCs are projected to increase considerably before dropping toward the end of the period. 100 HR FMs are predicted to move well below normal, to near their record minimum by Monday, then increase. 1000 HR FMs remain above the 20% mark which should keep mop-up to a minimum.
  • Little to no chance for a significant fire during the period.
  • Little to no chance for a significant fire during the period. An excellent explanation of the 7-Day Significant Fire Potential Product can be found here.

Region Two

R2 Full Report

SUMMARY March 21, 2019

    Fire Danger will increase through the weekend with lower RH and higher winds. A good chance of precipitation Monday night and Tuesday will reduce the danger again.
  • Minimum RH will generally be in the mid-40s-mid 50s in the western part of the region for today and mid-60s for the eastern sections for today, with upper 20s to mid-30s for tomorrow through Sunday. For Monday and Tuesday, expect mid 40s-mid-50s, then back to the 30s for Wednesday.
  • Winds will be generally be 6-10 MPH from the W/NW for the rest of today, with gusts up to 22. For tomorrow and Saturday, expect W/NW from 12-20 with gusts to 30 MPH. For the remainder of the period, expect winds from 5-10 MPH.
  • High temperatures will be in the low 50s- low 60s through the period except Monday when they will range from the mid-60s to low 70s.
  • ERCs are projected to be around normal this week except the Blue Ridge will be slightly lower and the South Coast will be much higher. 100 HR FMs are predicted to be normal to slightly below normal except South Coast which shows well below normal. 1000 HR FMs remain above the 20% mark which should keep mop-up to a minimum.
  • Little to no chance for a significant fire during the period. An excellent explanation of the 7-Day Significant Fire Potential Product can be found here

Region Three

R3 Full Report

SUMMARY March 21, 2019

    Fire Danger will increase tomorrow with much lower RH and higher winds, especially where little or no rain fell over the past 48 hours. Winds will calm somewhat on Saturday, but RH will still be low, and fire danger still elevated through Sunday before another front moves through, bringing rain and possibly some snow to the higher elevations.
  • Minimum RH will generally be in the mid-20s to mid-30s Friday-Sunday, then up to the 50-60% range for Monday and Tuesday before returning to around 40% for the remainder of the period.
  • Winds will generally be NW tomorrow at 10-15 MPH with gusts to 25 or even higher on the exposed ridges. For the remainder of the period, expect winds from 5-10 MPH
  • High temperatures will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s for the mountains and mid-50s to mid-60s for the piedmont through the period
  • ERCs will be slightly below or right around normal, except for Northern Highlands which is predicted to be above normal through the weekend before dropping with the anticipated next rain event. 100 HR FM will be dropping to below normal by Monday, to near all-time minimums for Northern Highlands, Central Mountains, and Southern Highlands. 1000 HR FMs are still quite high.
  • Little to no chance for a significant fire during the period. An excellent explanation of the 7-Day Significant Fire Potential Product can be found here


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